Network coverage forecast – Mobility Report - Ericsson

Momentum continues in the build-out of 4G (LTE) networks. Global 4G population coverage will be over 80 percent at the end of 2020 and is forecast to reach around 95 percent in 2026. 4G networks are also evolving to deliver increased network capacity and faster data speeds. There are currently 795 commercial 4G networks deployed. Of these, 324 have been upgraded to LTE-Advanced, and 41 Gigabit LTE networks have been commercially launched.

5G launch and deployment as per the end of 2019

Global 5G population coverage was around 5 percent at the end of 2019, with the main deployments made in larger cities. The most extensive coverage build-outs have been in the US, China, South Korea and Switzerland. In South Korea, service providers rapidly built 5G networks that covered a large part of the population. In Switzerland, 5G population coverage reached over 90 percent at the end of 2019.

5G estimated to cover over 1 billion people by the end of 2020

To date, there have been more than 100 5G commercial launches across the world. The estimated population coverage by the end of 2020 is approximately 15 percent, equivalent to over 1 billion people.

5G coverage build-out can be divided into three broad deployments:

1. New bands in the sub-6GHz range
2. mmWave frequency bands
3. Existing LTE bands

There are big differences between countries in how service providers have deployed 5G. In the US, all three of these categories have been used, resulting in 5G coverage for a large part of the population. In Europe, countries such as Germany and Spain have used deployments in existing bands to create substantial coverage. China has mainly deployed new bands to achieve a large population coverage.

5G estimated to cover around 60 percent of the population in 2020

There are several global factors impacting the forecast; the most evident short-term ones are COVID-19 and the geopolitical situation. The exact impact of these factors on 5G population coverage remains to be seen. 5G is still expected to be the fastest deployed mobile communication technology in history and is forecast to cover about 60 percent of the world’s population in 2026.

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Network coverage forecast – Mobility Report - Ericsson
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