Lions vs Chiefs Odds
Thursday, Sep 7
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
+4.5 -110 |
53.5 -110o / -110u |
+185 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|
-4.5 -110 |
53.5 -110o / -110u |
-225 |
It's time to make Lions vs. Chiefs picks as we begin the 2023 NFL season.
We've been waiting almost seven months for the NFL to return. The last time we saw professional football at this level, the Kansas City hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tonight, the Chiefs might be missing key players on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, they still have Patrick Mahomes.
Our staff of betting analysts is all over this game. We have a Lions vs. Chiefs spread pick, one team prop, an exotic and three more player props.
Check out our favorite Lions vs. Chiefs picks below.
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Lions vs. Chiefs Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Lions vs. Chiefs
The Lions finished ninth in Offensive DVOA last season, and the offense could get better this season. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is back, and the Lions added weapons in the draft (Jahmy Gibbs and Sam LaPorta). Also, the Penei Sewell-Taylor Decker-Frank Ragnow offensive line trio will be rock solid.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s young defensive stars shined in the second half of last season. Aidan Hutchison and James Houston will thrive in the pass rush, while the Lions also overhauled their secondary in the offseason with cornerbacks CJ Moseley, CJ Gardner-Johnson and Cam Sutton while drafting safety Brian Branch.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are a dominant offense with a league-average defense. Sound familiar?
Kansas City’s defense figures to improve as the season progresses, but that won’t help them in Week 1. Defensive roster turnover and young talent don’t bode well in an early season tilt against an elite NFL offense.
Meanwhile, Travis Kelce is likely out for this game. Without him, I’m unsure if the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense will roll, especially against Detroit’s vastly more talented secondary.
Meanwhile, all the historical trends are telling us to bet Detroit. Despite the Chiefs’ usual dominance, they’ve been surprisingly ineffective at covering as favorites. The Chiefs are 14-25 ATS as favorites of over a field goal since 2020.
Mahomes scores points, but his defense allows underdogs to hang around.
Meanwhile, hanging around is what the Johnson-Goff offense does. Despite fielding a lousy, ineffective defense, the Lions are 17-9 ATS as underdogs of more than a field goal in the Dan Campbell era.
Two more for the road:
- Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 or more points are 49-31 ATS since 2005 (61%, 19% ROI).
- Week 1 road ‘dogs that missed the previous postseason (e.g., the Lions) are 84-57-5 since 2005 (60%, 16% ROI).
The Lions could win this game outright, but I’ll happily take the points.
Pick: Lions +4.5
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Lions vs. Chiefs
By Billy Ward
My favorite NFL prop is back — at least at BetMGM — after coming and going a few times last season. That would be the "Will either team record 3 unanswered scores" bet, found under the "scoring props" tab.
When I first started looking into this bet, BetMGM kept the same price on it for every single game, with the no at +175. That was pretty obviously inaccurate, as some games were certainly more likely to have three straight scores than others.
By charting five years worth of data, I came to the conclusion that this bet correlates far more heavily with the spread than it does the total. With the flat pricing across all games, this made any game with a spread of 2.5 or less a value, and blind-betting those opportunities produces roughly a unit of profit per week.
Now, things are a bit more complicated, as I'm expecting varied pricing on the bet based on the +200 in the opener. However, it certainly seems that books (DraftKings occasionally offers this prop as well) are correlating their pricing to the total, rather than the spread.
While the total matters, the spread is the far more important factor. This prop went up when the spread was at 6.5 points — and I was showing a value on it then — but it's an even better value now that the spread has tightened in reaction to the Travis Kelce injury. An injury that also put a dent in the total.
That's the other way we can find an edge on this prop (and other derivatives). Even if books price the prop perfectly at open, if the spread and/or total move, there's sometimes value in props that they've forgot to adjust.
I have a fair value on this one around +160 (depending on how you weigh the spread vs. the total) following the line movement, making the +200 a great play.
Pick: Either Team 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+200)
Lions vs. Chiefs
Regardless of whether Travis Kelce is on the shelf for this season's opener, my numbers anticipate a bit more of a run-script for the Lions offense. Getting into a shootout with the Chiefs when your second-best proven pass-catcher is 33-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. seems like a bad idea
My model has Goff for 245 passing yards and that gives us a very minimal 4% expected edge over FanDuel's current number. Normally, this would be a "lean" and move-on type of situation but since it's the opening game of the year, I'll get some light action down.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 258.5 Passing Yards
Lions vs. Chiefs
This is one of my favorite props of the week.
Mahomes gets a matchup against the Lions, who gave up the most rushing yards to opposing QBs last season — a massive 700 total with the next closest being Miami at 525. While this is slightly inflated due to playing Justin Fields twice and giving up 300 yards total between those two games, Detroit's defense is still a solid matchup for mobile QBs.
The total and spread for this game are also solid here, and Mahomes has some legs. He hit the over at this number in 10 of 17 games last season, averaging over 20 yards per game. Also, Kelce potentially missing this game could cause Mahomes to do some work on the ground here.
I'd bet this line up to 18.5.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 Rushing Yards
Lions vs. Chiefs
By Ricky Henne
The Kansas City Chiefs average 37.8 — 37.8! — points per game in season openers with Patrick Mahomes under center. While Kelce’s knee injury throws a monkey wrench into things, it does provide an edge to those who believe the Chiefs offense can still cook without him.
The Chiefs’ team total was as high as 31.5 a few days ago. Now, with Kelce listed as questionable, you can grab it as low as 28.5. That three-point shift is drastic. While it shows just how important Kelce is to this offense, I feel it’s an overreaction considering the maestro orchestrating this offense.
We’re blessed every time we get to watch Mahomes take the field, but that’s especially the case in the first week of the season. The reigning MVP boasts a ridiculous 136.9 passer rating over his five season openers, throwing for 1,542 yards, 18 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
So, if you were willing to back the Chiefs’ total at 31.5 with Kelce, don’t be afraid to back it at 28.5 potentially without him. For me, there’s simply too much history when it comes to Mahomes and the Chiefs in Week 1 to ignore.
I do have my limits, though. Kelce’s absence is absolutely a game changer, just not one I feel should cause a full three-point shift, which is why 28.5 is a hard threshold for me.
Pick: Chiefs Team Total Over 28.5
Lions vs. Chiefs
By Chris Baker
I think McKinnon is poised to benefit from Kelce's potential absence tonight.
The Lions will likely be starting a combination of rookie LB Jack Campbell and veteran Alex Anzalone. Campbell was fine in coverage in college but was definitely drafted due to his prowess as a run-defender and his toughness. I expect him to have difficulty adjusting to NFL speed, and this is an especially difficult first game given how much pre-snap motion (third in 2022) the Chiefs use.
Anzalone, meanwhile, was graded 42nd out of 70 qualified linebackers in coverage grade according to Pro Football Focus. If Malcolm Rodriguez sees any playing time, he will almost certainly be targeted by Andy Reid as the sophomore had a brutal rookie year in coverage.
I also think the fact that the Lions blitzed at the sixth-highest rate in 2022 benefits McKinnon, as the Chiefs will likely scheme up some screens for him.
This is not an especially difficult matchup for McKinnon on paper, but what really pushes this over the edge for me is the likely absence of Kelce. You can make a case that McKinnon is actually the most proven receiving threat for Mahomes entering Thursday night since he finished with a higher receiving DVOA and Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement than every non-Kelce Chief in 2022.
The absence of Chris Jones and Kelce should keep this game a bit tighter than it otherwise would be, helping keep the Chiefs in at least a neutral-game script that should help McKinnon clear this pedestrian total.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
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September 08, 2023 at 02:30AM
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