Lions vs Packers Prediction, Odds
Thursday, Nov. 23
12:30 p.m. ET
FOX
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|
-8.5 -110 |
46.5 -110o / -110u |
-425 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
|
+8.5 -110 |
46.5 -110o / -110u |
+325 |
Lions vs. Packers odds have gone from Detroit -7 to -8.5 on Thursday morning. The over/under also rose from 46 up to 47.5 before settling at 46.5 ahead of kickoff.
Let's break down the matchup and get to my Lions vs. Packers prediction. Happy Thanksgiving!
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Lions vs Packers Prediction
Lions vs. Packers
Matchup Analysis
When the Lions Have the Ball
The Lions are nearly at full strength right now, but their only starter expected to miss is LG Jonah Jackson. Going from Jackson to Colby Sorsdal is a big drop-off as the fifth-round rookie has really struggled this year and allowed a team-high four pressures while filling in for Jackson.
However, the Lions have an elite offensive line and can overcome one player being out. If they're ever without two or more starters, that’s when I think it should start to impact the spread and total.
The Packers are also dealing with key injuries on defense. LB De'Vondre Campbell and CB Jaire Alexander are shaping up to be game-time decisions. If either of them is ruled out, it will only boost the outlook for the Lions offense.
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When the Packers Have the Ball
The Packers offense has been decimated by injuries and will have to scramble to sort it all out on a short week.
Running backs Aaron Jones and Emanuel Wilson have already been ruled out, making A.J. Dillon the lead back. Even Dillon is expected to play through a groin injury, though.
Dontayvion Wicks has been emerging as one of Green Bay's top WRs, but he appears unlikely to be cleared from his concussion in time to play. Oh, and TE Luke Musgrave was placed on the IR as he was hospitalized with a lacerated kidney.
It’s going to be difficult for Jordan Love and the Packers offense to operate with so many players expected to miss, especially on the short week.
Lions vs. Packers
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Lions appear to be the play here against the shorthanded Packers on the short week. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of seven or more points on Thanksgiving are 27-4 straight-up (SU) and 23-8 against the spread (ATS).
I think the sharper play here is to target the first-half spread. The better team (Lions) will likely get off to a fast start while the Packers may need a few drives to get comfortable with their new personnel groupings. Also, the Lions are 7-3 ATS in the first half while the Packers are 4-6.
When you look at their for/against splits by half:
- The Packers score 5.9 points per game in the first half (31st) and 14.3 in the second half (first).
- Packers opponents score 11.8 points in the first half (14th most) and 8.4 in the second (26th).
- The Lions score 15.3 points per game in the first half (sixth) and 11.9 in the second (seventh).
- Lions opponents score 10.2 points per game in the first half (22nd) and 12.1 in the second (seventh).
The Packers' second-half prowess worries me about a potential backdoor cover, so let’s just take the Lions -4.5 for the first half.
Pick: Lions 1H -4.5
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November 23, 2023 at 11:20PM
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Lions vs Packers Prediction, Odds, Pick: Bet Detroit in First Half - The Action Network
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